Scipedia: Collection of Advances in Climate Change Research

Are There Impacts of Urban Heat Island on Future Climate Change?

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:27:14 +0200

A Review on Evaluation Methods of Climate Modeling

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:27:08 +0200

There is scientific progress in the evaluation methods of recent Earth system models (ESMs). Methods range from single variable to multi-variables, multi-processes, multi-phenomena quantitative evaluations in five layers (spheres) of the Earth system, from climatic mean assessment to climate change (such as trends, periodicity, interdecadal variability), extreme values, abnormal characters and quantitative evaluations of phenomena, from qualitative assessment to quantitative calculation of reliability and uncertainty for model simulations. Researchers started considering independence and similarity between models in multi-model use, as well as the quantitative evaluation of climate prediction and projection effect and the quantitative uncertainty contribution analysis. In this manuscript, the simulations and projections by both CMIP5 and CMIP3 that have been published after 2007 are reviewed and summarized. Zhao, Z.-C., Y. Luo, and J.-B. Huang, 2013: A review on evaluation methods of climate modeling. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.137.

Effects of Sunspot on the Multi-Decadal Climate Projections

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:27:01 +0200

Comparison and Analysis of CO2 Emissions Data for China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:26:52 +0200

This paper reviews the CO2 emissions data for China provided by various international organizations and databases (namely IEA, BP, EDGAR/PBL/JRC, CDIAC, EIA and CAIT) and compares them with China��s official data and estimation. The difference among these data is due to different scopes, methods and underlying data, and particularly the difference in fossil fuel consumption. Compared with data from other databases, IEA and CAIT data have the best comparability with China��s official data. The paper recommends that China enhance its coal statistics, raise the frequency of official data publication and improve the inventory completeness. Zhu, S.-L., 2014: Comparison and analysis of CO2 emissions data for China. Adv. Clim. Change Res ., 5(1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.017.

Analysis of the Carbon Footprint and Its Environmental Impact Factors for Living and Travel in Shijiazhuang City

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:26:41 +0200

By using methods of carbon footprint analysis, and impacts of population, affluence and technology (IPAT), this article analyzes the carbon footprints of residence and travel, and their influential factors for different urban residential incomes, using 1, 500 household questionnaires in Shijiazhuang city, Hebei province. The results show that the process of urban residents improving their living standards is also a driving factor in the increase of their carbon footprints, at the same time, the progress in technology has a positive impact on reducing the carbon footprints of urban residence. This article suggests that some measures, such as promoting energy-saving buildings and central heating supply, and establishing the convenient and comfortable public transport system, should be taken to reduce the carbon footprints of residence and travel in Shijiazhuang city. Zhuang, X., K. Jiang, and X. Zhao, 2011: Analysis of the carbon footprint and its environmental impact factors for living and travel in Shijiazhuang city. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2(3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00159.

Simulation of Climate Negotiation Strategies between China and the U.S. Based on Game Theory

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:26:13 +0200

Consensus and disagreements between China and the U.S. are the key factors influencing the direction that global climate negotiation is heading for. By taking into account the uncertainties of temperature increment and its impact on GDP growth, together with the positive, negative and spillover effects of climate change investment on utility, a strategic simulation model including China and the U.S. is developed. Based on utility and game theory, a sensitivity analysis is conducted. The results show that the first-mover disadvantage exists in the game, and the scale of each country��s climate change investment under non-cooperative scenario is too small to ensure the 2��C target. To guarantee the stability and win-win basis for global cooperation, the simulation results also indicate that it makes sense to assist and compensate technology transfer and funding to China. Jin, Z.-G., W.-J. Cai, and C. Wang, 2014: Simulation of climate negotiation strategies between China and the U.S. based on game theory. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 5 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.034.

Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy on CO2 Mitigation and Economic Growth in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:26:06 +0200

In this paper we examine the impacts of carbon tax policy on CO2 mitigation effects and economic growth in China by using a dynamic energy-environment-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that 30, 60, and 90 RMB per ton CO2 of carbon tax rate will lead to a reduction of CO2 emissions by 4.52%, 8.59%, and 12.26%, as well as a decline in the GDP by 0.11%, 0.25%, and 0.39% in 2020, respectively, if carbon tax revenues are collected by the government. Moreover, with energy efficiency improvements the CO2 emission per unit of GDP will equally drop by 34.79%, 37.49%, and 39.92% in 2020, respectively. Negative impacts on sectors and households will be alleviated if carbon tax revenues are returned to these sectors and households. Zhou, S., M. Shi, N. Li, et al., 2011: Impacts of carbon tax policy on CO2 mitigation and economic growth in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2(3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00124.

From global change to Future Earth in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:25:56 +0200

Here we review the activities and recent accomplishments resulting from the global change and Future Earth initiative studies in China. As a new international research initiative, Future Earth will develop comprehensive knowledge for responding to global change risks and create transformative opportunities toward future global sustainability. The Chinese National Committee for Future Earth, the consultation project Develop ��Future Earth in China�� for Promoting Social Sustainability and the cooperative international project Co-design of Implementation Plan for Future Earth in China were developed to help foster a culture of sustainability and conservation in China. To help promote the sustainability movement in China, Chinese scientists from both the natural and social sciences, policymakers, and stakeholders are encouraged to join the future activities following the Future Earth model co-design, co-produce, and co-delivery.

Implementation of the Future Earth programme in China: Chinese scientists at the forefront

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:25:50 +0200

Practical Paths towards Lowering Black Carbon Emissions

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:25:41 +0200

Black carbon (BC) aerosol, accounting for a minor fraction of atmospheric aerosols, is attracting increased attention due to its impact on air quality, human health, and climate change. Focusing on BC emission reduction, this paper gives a brief introduction to the sources and global distribution of BC. Along with the decrease of BC emissions from such actions as the reduction of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and regulating local air quality, it also highlights other BC reduction approaches such as control and improvement of combustion conditions, the elimination of open biomass burning, and the sequestration of BC by biomass pyrolysis. Finally, it is stressed that at this moment there is no enough reason to push BC reduction into any climate change related negotiations, although BC has been included in some of so-called win-win reduction targets for the quick response to both climate and non-climate appeals. Zhi, G., X. Zhang, H. Cheng, et al., 2011: Practical paths towards lowering black carbon emissions. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00012.

Trends of Extreme Flood Events in the Pearl River Basin during 1951�C2010

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:25:31 +0200

The study investigated the trend of extreme flood events in the Pearl River basin during 1951�C2010. Stream flow data at 23 gauging stations were used for the study. The Pearson type III distribution was selected for the flood frequency analysis. Results indicate that extreme flood events increase significantly in the Pearl River Basin since 1980. At the 23 gauging stations, there are 16 (70%) stations show positive (increasing) trends in 1981�C2010. Most of the 16 stations are located along the West River and North River. While 7 (30%) stations show negative (decreasing) trends, and are found in the East River and the southeast region of the West River Basin. Wu, Z.-Y., G.-H. Lu, Z.-Y. Liu, et al., 2013: Trends of extreme flood events in the Pearl River Basin during 1951�C2010. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.110.

Simulation of global ocean acidification and chemical habitats of shallow- and cold-water coral reefs

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:25:09 +0200

Using the UVic Earth System Model, this study simulated the change of seawater chemistry and analyzed the chemical habitat surrounding shallow- and cold-water coral reefs from the year 1800 to 2300 employing RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model results showed that the global ocean will continue to absorb atmospheric CO2 . Global mean surface ocean temperature will rise 1.1�C2.8 K at the end of the 21st century across RCP scenarios. Meanwhile, the global mean surface ocean pH will drop 0.14�C0.42 and the ocean surface mean concentration of carbonate will decrease 20%�C51% across the RCP scenarios. The saturated state of sea water with respect to calcite carbonate minerals (�� ) will decrease rapidly. During the pre-industrial period, 99% of the shallow-water coral reefs were surrounded by seawater with �� > 3.5 and 87% of the deep-sea coral reefs were surrounded by seawater with aragonite supersaturation. Within the 21st century, except for the high mitigation scenario of RCP2.6, almost none shallow-water coral reefs will be surrounded by seawater with �� > 3.5. Under the intensive emission scenario of RCP8.5, by the year 2100, the aragonite saturation horizon will rise to 308 m under the sea surface from 1138 m at the pre-industrial period, thus 73% of the cold-water coral reefs will be surrounded by seawater with aragonite undersaturation. By the year 2300, only 5% of the cold-water coral reefs will be surrounded by seawater with aragonite supersaturation.

Observed Climate Changes in Southwest China during 1961�C2010

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:56 +0200

The present study focused on statistical analysis of interannual, interdecadal variations of climate variables and extreme climate events during the period of 1961�C2010 using observational data from 376 meteorological stations uniformly distributed across Southwest China, which includes Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan and Tibet. It was found that temperatures in most of the region were warming and this was especially evident for areas at high elevation. The warming was mostly attributable to the increase in annual mean minimum temperature. The characteristics of high temperature/heat waves are increase in frequency, prolonged duration, and weakened intensity. Annual precipitation showed a weak decreasing trend and drier in the east and more rainfall in the west. The precipitation amount in flood season was declining markedly in the whole region, rainfall from extreme heavy precipitation did not change much, and the portion of annual precipitation contributed by extreme heavy precipitation had an increasing trend, annual non-rainy days and the longest consecutive non-rainy days were both increasing, the extreme drought had a decreasing trend since the 1990s, the autumn-rain days displayed a downward fluctuation with apparent periodicity and intermittency. The number of southwestern vortices was decreasing whereas the number of moving vortices increased. Ma, Z.-F., J. Liu, S.-Q. Zhang, et al., 2013: Observed climate changes in Southwest China during 1961�C2010. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.030.

Climate Change in Southwest China during 1961�C2010: Impacts and Adaptation

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:50 +0200

Due to climate change, the regional agro-climatic conditions in Southwest China have undergone changes. The heat sources for the growth of crops have been improved. The number of days with temperatures steadily above 0��C and 10��C (two criteria) have increased during 1960�C2010. The area suitable for multiple cropping has increased, the growth period has shortened, the climatic potential productivity has declined, the pest damage has worsened. During 1961�C2010, the desired cooling degree days in Southwest China has increased 38.9��C d per decade. Forest fires and pests have increased. The area of meadow and wetlands has decreased. Heterogeneous invasion has intensified, endangered animal and plant species have increased. The tourism landscape has been damaged. The risk of human health has increased. In the 21st century, with the increase of temperature and precipitation, the number of days with temperature steadily above 10��C and the accumulated temperature will continue to increase, most notably in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The area of intercropping will expand, multiple cropping will move to higher altitudes. The impacts of agrometeorological disasters, pests and diseases will intensify. The summer cooling energy consumption continues to increase, energy supply will show larger variability, the gap between energy supply and demand will be widened. The phenology will keep on changing, and the habitat will be worsening. Biological population will move northward and to higher altitudes. Some species are at risk of extinction. Negative effects on health will increase. Ma, Z.-F., J. Liu, and S.-Q. Yang, 2013: Climate change in Southwest China during 1961�C2010: Impacts and adaptation. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 4(4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.223.

Is Global Strong Wind Declining?

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:44 +0200

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Northwest China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:38 +0200

Climate change resulted in changes in crop growth duration and planting structure, northward movement of planting region, and more severe plant diseases and insect pests in Northwest China. It caused earlier seeding for spring crop, later seeding for autumn crop, accelerated crop growth, and reduced mortality for winter crop. To adapt to climate change, measures such as optimization of agricultural arrangement, adjustment of planting structure, expansion of thermophilic crops, and development of water-saving agriculture have been taken. Damaging consequences of imbalance between grassland and livestock were enhanced. The deterioration trend of grassland was intensified, both grass quantity and quality declined. With overgrazing, proportions of inferior grass, weeds and poisonous weeds increased in plateau pastoral areas. Returning farmland to grazing, returning grazing to grassland, fence enclosure and artificial grassland construction have been implemented to restore the grassland vegetation, to increase the grassland coverage, to reasonably control the livestock carrying capacity, to prevent overgrazing, to keep balance between grassland and livestock, and to develop the ecological animal husbandry. In Northwest China, because the amount of regional water resources had an overall decreasing trend, there was a continuous expansion in the regional land desertification, and soil erosion was very serious. A series of measures, such as development of artificial precipitation (snow), water resources control, regional water diversion, water storage project and so on, were used effectively to respond to water deficit. It had played a certain role in controlling soil erosion by natural forest protection and returning farmland to forest and grassland. In the early 21st century, noticeable achievements had been made in prevention and control of desertification in Northwest China. The regional ecological environment has been improved obviously, and the desertification trend has shown sign of under control. Zhao, H.-Y., J.-Q. Guo, C.-J. Zhang, et al., 2014: Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in Northwest China. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 5 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.007.

Establishing the fair allocation of international aviation carbon emission rights

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:22 +0200

To identify potentially unfair use of international aviation carbon emission rights in different countries, this paper presents a carbon Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient, constructed on the basis of historical cumulative international aviation CO2 emissions per capita. The study follows a methodology adapted from the research into fair income allocation. The results of these calculations show that there has been vast unfairness surrounding international aviation carbon emissions in the past, and that this unfairness has been partially hidden by a delay in accumulative start dates. A solution to this problem, allowing fair allocation of carbon emissions, is the key to building a mechanism for the reduction of global international aviation emissions. This study proposes a fair method for allocating emission rights, based on a responsibility-capacity index. Taking a goal of carbon-neutral growth by 2020 as an example, the degree of carbon emission reduction expected from different countries by 2021 is calculated using the proposed method.

Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:17 +0200

Advances in the Study of Black Carbon Effects on Climate

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:11 +0200

Black carbon (BC) aerosols can strongly absorb solar radiation in very broad spectral wavebands, from the visible to the infrared. As a potential factor contributing to global warming, BC aerosols not only directly change the radiation balance of the earth-atmosphere system, but also indirectly affect global or regional climate by acting as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei to alter cloud microphysical properties. Here, recent progresses in the studies of radiative forcing due to BC and its climate effects are reviewed. The uncertainties in current researches are discussed and some suggestions are provided for future investigations. Zhang, H., and Z. Wang, 2011: Advances in the study of black carbon effects on climate. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00023.

Study on the demand of climate finance for developing countries based on submitted INDC

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:03 +0200

The 21st Conference of Party (COP21) held in Paris at the end of 2015 has opened a new era for the joint response dealing with climate change globally, and built up a new mode of global climate governance, that is, ��all Parties submit INDC �C global stocktake �C enhance effort of actions �C all Parties resubmit INDC �C finally achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention.�� With 160 INDC reports (covering 188 Parties) that the UNFCCC Secretariat has currently received as research objects, this study classifies the mitigation targets of all Parties, and focuses on the systematic analysis of the financial demand, mitigation cost and priority investment areas for developing countries. The results are as follows: among 160 INDC reports, 122 reports clearly include the finance content, 64 reports propose specific amount of financial demand for the implementation of INDC, 31 reports pre-estimate domestic amount and financial demand for greenhouse gas mitigation in 2030, based on which they have calculated that the average mitigation cost for developing countries in 2030 would have reached up to US$22.3 per ton CO2, 28 Parties reclassify the financial demand for mitigation and adaptation areas, and reach the conclusion that the overall financial demand ratio for mitigation and adaptation is 1.4. Should the current mitigation commitments of the Parties from developed countries be used as benchmark, then in 2030 the total amount of financial demand for developing countries in response to climate change would have reached up to US$474 billion.